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   III-C. Summary Reasoning Case Study: Global Warming
  

Man-made carbon dioxide output increases will cause catastrophic global warming in the next century.

Supporting

  • There is a correlation between carbon dioxide swings and temperature based on ice core data going back thousands of years.

    Correlation does not prove causality because of confounding factors. The correlation between carbon dioxide and global temperature does not mean that higher carbon dioxide levels cause higher temperature. The hidden confounding factor may be that higher temperatures cause the oceans to release large amounts of carbon dioxide. It is possible that carbon dioxide doesn't increase temperature, but that higher temperatures increase carbon dioxide, causing the apparent correlation.

  • Temperatures in Nome Alaska have increased more than 5 degrees in the last 20 years.

    Insufficient sample. it is unlikely that a single weather event could be evidence for global warming since luck could play a role in that individual event.


  • There is universal consensus in the academic community that global warming is occurring and man-made pollution is to blame.

     Appeal to authority (academics)
    Argument ad populum (validity isn't a popularity contest).


  • The "skeptics" of global warming often have their research paid for by large oil companies

     Ad hominem- it is irrelevant who pays, what matters is the accuracy of the research.


  • Venus is the hottest planet in the solar system because its atmosphere is 90% carbon dioxide, which traps heat.

     False analogy - you can't compare the Earth, which has a 0.5% concentration carbon dioxide concentration, to Venus, with a 90% concentration.


  • Even though temperatures have only increased by about one degree in one hundred years, the future will be catastrophic.

    Slippery slope.

How could the carbon-dioxide based global warming argument be strengthened?

  • Show very direct and clear historical evidence that an increase in carbon levels precedes global temperature increases without any other factors.

    This would strengthen the argument that carbon dioxide increases cause global temperature increases and not the other way around.


  • Eliminate the role of any other factors such as solar activity, heat islands, other greenhouse gases, weather patterns or other factors as playing any major part in the recent temperature increase.

    This would weaken confounding factors and make carbon dioxide the only possible culprit.

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Notice the use of confounding factors
Why the global warming exercise? As discussed above, one of the best ways to attack a correlation-based causal argument like carbon dioxide causes global warming is to suggest confounding factors. You can strengthen the argument by ruling out confounding factors. Since Strengthen/Weaken questions comprise over a quarter of critical reasoning questions, using confounding factors is valuable skill.
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